![]() Before that, Stephen Harper had to go to extraordinary lengths to find cabinet ministers from Vancouver and Montreal. "And that means that there's kind of a policy tin ear for whichever party manages to cobble together a winning coalition."Īfter the 2019 election, some observers expressed concerns about a lack of Western representation in Justin Trudeau's cabinet. And as a result, they don't really hear what people in those regions want and what their hopes and aspirations and fears are," Taylor said in an interview. they can't recruit good candidates, they can't be visible to voters. "What I worry about is that when parties become uncompetitive in each other's turf for very long periods of time. But the existence of an urban-rural divide in voting patterns isn't necessarily cause for panic - even if it's always important to mind the gaps. The dangers of polarization have been evident across Western democracies over the last six years. Though a colour-coded electoral map might suggest otherwise, there are still people living in rural Alberta who vote Liberal and residents of downtown Toronto who vote Conservative. To some extent, the divide might be accentuated by the first-past-the-post system, Taylor said. "At the same time, a profound transformation inside the Liberal Party, in which a set of highly educated urban professionals came to play a leading role both as strategists and political candidates, appears to have increased the Liberal Party's appeal in the urban context." "On one side, Prime Minister Diefenbaker's identity as a small town Prairie lawyer, and his bitter criticism of business and media elites in Canada's big cities, may have pushed professionals and wealthy voters in urban areas away from their traditional loyalties," the researchers write.ĭid John Diefenbaker's public identification with rural Canadians over urban 'elites' drive a wedge between his party and city-dwelling Canadians? (Chuck Mitchell/Canadian Press) But there could be many reasons explaining why Canadian politics has developed this way - everything from economic and social trends to policy choices to the lasting significance of political foundations that were built 60 years ago. Of the 150 least urban ridings, the Liberals won 34 while the Conservatives took 81.Īn urban-rural political divide is not unique to Canada. ![]() (Jack Lucas/University of Calgary) Identity and party Positive values indicate urban advantage negative values indicate rural advantage. This graph - produced by Lucas, Taylor and Armstrong - shows the relationship between riding vote share and riding urbanity for the Liberals and Conservatives across every election since Confederation. ![]() The Conservatives won just 23 of those urban ridings. Then it got even bigger in 2021. According to the work done by Armstrong, Lucas and Taylor, the Liberals won all 25 of the most urban ridings in Canada and 109 of the top 150 most urban ridings. ![]() The gap between the two parties was larger than ever before in 2019. That trend accelerated after the Canadian Alliance and Progressive Conservative parties merged in 2003 to become the modern Conservative Party. What they found is that Canada's two major parties began to diverge in the 1960s: Liberal support began to get more urban, Conservative support began to get more rural. Using data on population density, location, economic activity and social diversity, they developed a new measure of "urbanity" that allows them to track long-term trends in party support since Confederation. That new research was produced by professors David Armstrong and Zack Taylor of Western University and Jack Lucas from the University of Calgary. Analysis Erin O'Toole's climate policy contradictions could end up taking his party backward
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